OWL Banquet Chase Case!
Greetings! This site contains data for the OWL Banquet Chase case, which is set on April 3rd, 1974 in an alternate universe.
These days, it is very difficult for student meteorologists to obtain an independent forecast of how the atmosphere works. We always have a diverse set of guidance regarding any upcoming forecast. This guidance can range between the SPC outlooks, word-of-mouth, long or short range numerical weather prediction, NWS forecasts. There are literally thousands of other products and forecasts that a single meteorologist can look at, and while it can be helpful in forecasting the atmosphere, it can distract meteorologists from developing their own independent expectation of what will happen next. This chase case is designed specifically to allow you the opportunity to work with data and tools so you can develop your own expectation of what will happen next.
This chase case is data focused, and will feature some data you may never have seen before. Some data will be helpful, some data won't. Your job is to adapt and fill in the gaps! Ask yourself and the data questions! Acknowledge what you do know and what you don't know. You'll need to work together with others. Simplify the problem before you introduce complexity. As a forecaster and scientist, you need to be able to assimilate new data and build a conceptual model of the atmosphere from it. This chase case will be challenging, but is doable.
You'll need to bring:
- Colored pencils/pencils
- A computer to view the data on this website
- A touch of insanity
Rules:
1.) I'll be providing my own 00 UTC upper air and surface map hand analyses from the day before the event, but I encourage you to print out the corresponding maps and do your own. I'll also be providing upper air soundings, along with a map of the sounding locations, for those who are unfamiliar with them. A 00 UTC model run will be provided. This model is a barotropic model, which means that the ONLY process that this model cares about is the advection of vorticity. This model has no knowledge of temperature gradients, thunderstorms, radiation, etc. that may be important to the forecast. In fact, this model has no knowledge whatsoever that there are other layers of the atmosphere above or below 500 mb. The only output is the 500 mb winds, height anomlies, and relative vorticity. If your analysis says that phenomena such as temperature gradients and thunderstorms are important to the large scale evolution of the forecast, you probably shouldn't take this model output at face value!
About the barotropic model
2.) Don't try to guess the date of this event. You have a baseline 0.0039% chance of getting it right. However, on the off chance that you do know the event, don't say it, as it may spoil it for other people. A successful chase will rely on you to concentrate on the data and think about how the ingredients for severe weather are evolving.
3.) I'll have 12 UTC maps for your analysis at the beginning of the OWL banquet. I'll also post the soundings, etc. for you. Throughout the chase, I'll post new data to this website regularly.
4.) It is highly likely that you've never seen some of this data before. Use every forecasting tool to your advantage! Ask questions!
5.) Work together in teams of 2-4 people with people of varying expertise. Novices can learn from experts, but novices bring fresh eyes to the problem.
Tips:
1.) Think about places in the atmosphere where a persistence forecast is applicable.
2.) There are an infinite amount of future states of the atmosphere. How can you use the data to eliminate some of those possibilities?
3.) Pattern recognition, pattern recognition, pattern recognition.
4.) Start with the most simple assumption you can make in any forecast: Did the sun rise today? If it didn't, abandon your forecasting and find your loved ones (it did in this case).
5.) A hand analysis doesn't have to be pretty or perfect. Cold fronts CAN be drawn in a lime green color. Instead, focus on what a hand analysis should be: something that is useful and informative to you. It is the canvas for your forecast. Make it your own!
Data:
There will be a variety of data provided at regular intervals. Data provided will include:
- 500 mb forecasts from the BARO Barotropic Model
- Surface maps with ASOS data
- Upper air maps
- radiosonde data
- visible satellite
- radar reflectivity
- thickness charts
- hand analyzed maps
Here are the links to the data. Various directories will list the data files and will also describe how to interpret the data (how it is plotted):
Radar Sites
Soundings
Surface Maps
Upper Air Maps
00 UTC Hand Analyses
1000-500 mb Thickness Maps
500 mb Height/Wind BARO Model Output (init: 1974-04-03 00 UTC)
500 mb Vorticity/Wind BARO Model Output (init: 1974-04-03 00 UTC)
Radar
Satellite
UA Stations Available
Special Thanks
Special thanks goes to the following people for helping make this possible:
Tim Supinie (SoM/CAPS)
Mike Mogil (HTWW)
David Cleaver (SPC)
Axel Graumann (NCDC)
Don Burgess (NSSL)
Rodger Brown (NSSL)
Daryl Herzmann (IEM)
Luke Madaus (UW)
Kevin Kloesel (OK MESO)